Could the polls be wrong?
Posted by sanityinjection on October 30, 2008
Latest polls show Obama ahead in just about every key state. But the McCain campaign still seems to think they can win this thing. Why?
I think I know why. Consider the following hypothetical statement by a voter in a key state:
“Man, I am so sick of this whole election campaign. People coming by the house, our mailbox full of brochures, ads every five seconds on TV. Damn pollsters keep callin’ my house, I just hang up on them. I can’t wait until the whole thing is over!”
I think we can all agree that this statement represents the views of a decent number of people, probably including some we know. Clearly, their views are not being captured by any polls. Now ask yourself this: Assuming this person votes, who do you think they are likely to vote for? In other words, if this person is sick to death of all the hype, are they likely to vote for or against the candidate who seems to be the King of Hype? If this person is a cynic, are they more likely to vote for Obama or McCain?
I think the McCain campaign is counting on this group of people turning out to vote and voting for McCain. I do not know whether that assumption is right, but if it is, I agree it could make the difference between winning and losing. There are a lot of these people out there.