Sanity Injection

Injecting a dose of sanity into your day’s news and current events.

How McCain can still win: The six-state strategy

Posted by sanityinjection on October 22, 2008

With polls showing Barack Obama in the lead now in virtually all of what had been considered “toss-up” states, it is looking more and more like the Democrats will capture the Presidency in the upcioming election. However, a look at the electoral college map suggests that McCain only has to make gains in six key states in order to win the election.

My previous analyses focused on Michigan, Ohio, and the three western states of Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico as the keys to the election. Since then, Colorado and New Mexico seem to be definitely in the Obama camp as well as Michigan, where the McCain campaign has essentially abandoned its efforts.

Instead, McCain is focusing on what his advisors see as an opportunity in the Keystone State of Pennsylvania, where Obama’s lead is seen as vulnerable. A win there would more than offset Obama’s likely victory in the previously Republican-leaning state of Virginia.

In order to win, McCain needs to hold his lead in the states where he is currently ahead, and he needs to pick off the following “toss-up” states which currently favor Obama:

Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada (or New Hampshire.)

This would give McCain 273(272) electoral votes to Obama’s 265 (266) for a narrow victory. In five of the states mentioned, Obama’s lead in the polls is less than 3%.

Of course, this is still not an easy task. But do not be fooled by the media’s insistence that the race is over and Obama is going to win by a landslide. That has always been unlikely and it’s still unlikely now. I think McCain wins at least 4 of the 6 states.

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One Response to “How McCain can still win: The six-state strategy”

  1. sanityinjection said

    Update: With one week remaining before election day, McCain should be spending all his time in the following four states: Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire. Florida is an absolute must-win for McCain; there is no plausible scenario under which McCain can lose Florida and still win the election. Similarly, McCain has to win either Ohio or Virginia in order to get to 270 electoral votes.

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