Sanity Injection

Injecting a dose of sanity into your day’s news and current events.

Electoral College Analysis – July

Posted by sanityinjection on July 7, 2008

It’s always a risky proposition to try to predict how the Electoral College is going to go four months before the election. But doing so on the basis of current projections can provide a benchmark that will later allow us to detect trends indicating which way the voters are moving.

Furthermore, the Electoral College is structured in such a way that there are many states whose votes can be predicted today with virtual certainty. Only about a dozen states will actually be “in play” in terms of the outcome not being known until Election Night.

This of course means that both campaigns will concentrate their resources in certain states while ignoring others. As of right now, here are the states I believe will hold the keys to the outcome of the election:

Ohio (20 votes), Michigan (17 votes), Colorado (9 votes), Nevada (5 votes), New Mexico (5 votes), and New Hampshire (4 votes).

Barring some unusual development such as Obama winning more than one Southern state or a McCain upset in a major Northeast state like New Jersey, these states will decide the outcome of the contest. If either candidate wins both Ohio and Michigan, they should win. If each candidate wins one of those states, it will come down to the four smaller states. Obama would need to win three of the four, otherwise McCain would win.

I think it unlikely that Obama will win in three of four states with a history of voting Republican. So Obama’s best bet is to try to hold Michigan and capture Ohio. McCain on the other hand, with more limited resources, can pick either Michigan or Ohio to focus on and spend the rest of his money defending New Mexico, Colorado, and New Hampshire.

Of course, this could all change – we will see what happens after the conventions…


One Response to “Electoral College Analysis – July”

  1. sanityinjection said

    For a different but similar analysis, here is Larry Sabato:

    Sabato normally has a definite bias toward the Democrats, but I think he is reasonably on target in this piece.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: